The AI Cracks Are Making Headlines…
The Canary Dashboard shows rising market fragility through Q3 2026, as 5%+ Treasury yields, weaker hiring breadth, consumer stress, and AI financing concerns begin to converge.
“The Fall” – Of The Stock Market & US…
To compel the Fed to lower rates, the administration might need to accept a recession, with rising unemployment and a contracting economy. Such conditions would likely prompt the Fed to cut rates to stimulate growth, subsequently reducing interest payments on...
2025 Market Forecast: Did Santa Fall Off His Year-End Rally Sleigh?
Over the past year I have highlighted a number of data points that showcase the how the US economy and US equity markets have been at odds. In one update I highlighted the “Tale of Two Economies” within the US...
Did The US Economy Have Its Ticket Punched?
In this article we will discuss whether the US Presidential elections will lead to a Clearing Event... Did the US economy have its ticket punched?
A Take Of Two US Economies…
I was never a huge Dickens fan growing up. I always thought “old books” (i.e. Death of a Salesman, To Kill A Mockingbird, or A Tale of Two Cities) didn’t apply to modern day, and I couldn’t relate. Of course...
The Un-Employment Fiasco
As the unemployment rate increases, how will the economy and stock market react?
Did Immigration Mask US Economic Problems?
Did immigration mask the deterioration in the US economy over the last year?
Will The FED Engineer A Sticky Landing?
With a bumpy road ahead for the FED, will the economy stick a soft landing?
The Tipping Point… In The Stock Market?
This brings me to what I am calling “The Tipping Point”.
“In The Fed We Trust” – The Great Debate
The market has finally started to realize the hopeful interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) are all but a fleeting thought. As the 10 YR Treasury rate continues to climb back toward 5%…